Barragán Moreno, Sandra PatriciaSandra PatriciaBarragán MorenoGuzmán Rincón, AlfredoAlfredoGuzmán RincónSotomayor Soloaga, PedroPedroSotomayor Soloaga2026-10-082026-10-082026-06-25Barragán Moreno, Sandra Patricia; Guzmán Rincón, Alfredo; Sotomayor Soloaga, Pedro (2026-06-25). Organisational characteristics and student dropout dynamics in technical and vocational higher education: a Forrester-based simulation study. Frontiers in Education, 11, 1882712. https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2026.18827122504-284Xhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12740/24898Introduction Student dropout in technical and vocational higher education (TVHE) is commonly explained through individual or socioeconomic variables, relegating the structural role of organisational characteristics to the background. This study models the influence of organisational characteristics on the student dropout rate in TVHE and addresses this gap through a System Dynamics perspective, conceptualising dropout as an emergent phenomenon arising from dynamic interactions among institutional capacities, organisational pressures, and mediating processes such as academic burnout. Methods System Dynamics methodology was employed to model the influence of organisational characteristics on student dropout. Based on a causal loop diagram, a Forrester diagram was constructed incorporating stocks, flows, and auxiliary variables, and simulated over a ten-year horizon. The model integrates institutional coordination, organisational flexibility, support capacity, institutional climate, and perceived organisational support as structural levers, considering academic burnout as the central accumulation variable. Sensitivity analyses and policy scenario simulations were conducted to assess structural robustness and the effects of different organisational interventions. Results The baseline scenario shows that, even when the absolute number of dropouts may stabilise, the student dropout rate tends to increase due to the sustained growth of academic burnout and support staff burnout, revealing structural fragility. Sensitivity analysis confirms the mediating role of academic burnout and reveals asymmetries between mechanisms of institutional erosion and strengthening. Simulations indicate that isolated interventions produce only partial effects, whereas combined organisational strategies generate more stable and resilient retention trajectories. Discussion The main contribution of this study lies in endogenising organisational characteristics as structural dynamic determinants of dropout, moving beyond approaches that treat them as external contextual variables. By mathematically formalising feedback loops and cumulative processes, the model extends the theoretical understanding of dropout in TVHE and provides a prospective tool for institutional decision-making. The findings suggest that strengthening student retention requires systemic coherence among organisational capacities rather than isolated or reactive interventions.http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/academic workloadeducational sustainabilityForrester modelinstitutional coordinationorganizational flexibilitystudent dropout ratesupport capacitytechnical-professional educationArticulohttps://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2026.1882712